March 10

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March 10 Pre-Bell Update

• Overnight Inventory is 100% short. We are still trading inside of Friday’s range so gap rules don’t apply. We are currently hovering around the 5700 psychological level.

• VWAP is sitting at 5721 which adds confluence to Friday’s Value Area Low at 5719.

• Sellers are clearly in control but I will be monitoring for a potential overnight inventory correction, especially if there is lack of interest below the 5700-05 area.

March 10 Plan

Last Wednesday was an inside day, and since then we’ve seen two attempts at a downside breakout — Thursday’s initial move and Friday’s continuation. However, Friday’s weakness below the 5700 BZ level lacked follow-through, and we ended up right back at the 5764 BZ level, which is also Wednesday’s low and now a critical reference.

• This could set up a potential "inside day breakout failure", which would be a bullish development if buyers can maintain acceptance above 5764. In that scenario, I’ll be watching for a move back toward Wednesday’s high, and possibly beyond if momentum builds.
  

• On the flip side, if sellers can push us back below 5700, the path opens toward 5675, and below that we still have the broader downside targets of 5705 and 5647 if the selling accelerates.
  

• The market is currently trying to establish balance in this lower range, so we need to be open to both breakout failure and continuation scenarios. As always, let price confirm.

Bullish Scenarios:

• Longs above 5764 targeting Wednesday’s high (~5764).

• Longs above Wednesday’s high targeting 5823.

Bearish Scenarios:

• Shorts below 5700 targeting 5675.

• Shorts below 5675 targeting 5647.

Nasdaq:

• Longs above 20,200.00 targeting 20,585.00.

• Shorts below 20,027.00 targeting 19,782.00 followed by 19,469.00.

• Shorts below 19,469.00 targeting 19,128.00.