March 3
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March 3 Pre-Bell Update
Overnight Inventory is long. We are currently trading above/outside Friday’s range which means that gap rules are in play. The rule tells us to “go with the gap” if it doesn’t get filled. A sign of stronger buyers is preventing the gap from getting filled.
We have the Overnight High right at the 6000 psychological level. VWAP is sitting at 5976 which is just above the ETH Halfback at 5973.
For now we are seeing acceptance within/above Friday’s spike which should be bullish. Let’s see if buyers jump in to start the week.
March 3 Plan
Friday’s late-day rally created a spike, filling all of Thursday’s single prints and bringing us back to the 5969 BZ level. This spike suggests strong buying interest into the close. The base of the spike is at the 5910 BZ level, meaning Monday’s open and early price action will determine whether the market accepts or rejects Friday’s late-session move.
The most bullish scenario would be acceptance within or above the spike, which would validate the late-day buying and increase the probability of a move toward 5998 and potentially 6028. However, we are still seeing lower highs, so the key to confirming a trend change will be whether buyers can establish a higher low and sustain value above 5910.
If we reject the spike and move back below 5910, it would suggest that Friday’s rally was just short-covering rather than true initiative buying. In that case, I would expect sellers to attempt a move back toward 5881 and potentially lower.
Monday’s initial balance and reaction to 5910 will be crucial in setting the tone for the session. If buyers can hold above it, I will favor longs targeting 5969 and beyond. If sellers push below, I will be looking for shorts targeting 5881.
Bullish Scenarios:
Longs above 5931.50 targeting 5969.
Longs above 5969 targeting 5998.
Longs above 5998 targeting 6028.
Bearish Scenarios:
Shorts below 5910 targeting 5881.
Shorts below 5881 targeting 5823.
Shorts below 5823 targeting 5764.
Nasdaq:
Longs above 20,780.00 or above 20,930.00 targeting 21,243.00.
Shorts below 20,780.00 or below 20,585.00 targeting 20,200.00 followed by 20,027.00.