December 16
Discord access link: https://discord.gg/UPbu6PZFDp
*Apologies for my absence last week. Had a pretty tough week and weekend. Had to go to the hospital twice with my daughters and also with my wife. We had a pretty bad case of gastroenteritis and we were dealing with everyone throwing up and dehydration.
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December 16 Pre-Bell Update
Overnight Inventory is 100% long. We are still trading inside of Friday’s high so gap rules don’t apply. ETH buyers have traded through all of Friday’s single prints . VWAP is sitting at 6064.50 which adds confluence to the bottom of the top set of single prints at 6066.25.
Since Overnight Inventory is long I will be monitoring for interest above the open or above the Overnight High. Lack of interest could trigger a correction to overnight inventory.
For buyers it’s all about trading above Friday’s high while for sellers it’s all about getting us back below 6057 which would increase the odds of us seeing the repair of Friday’s poor low.
December 16 Plan
Last week we saw the end of Weekly One Time Framing Higher followed by failure to take out the poor All-Time High at 6111. This sparked a liquidation break during Thursday’s and Friday’s session. Even with Friday’s selling sellers failed to take out Tuesday’s low and hence failed to fill the remaining single prints from the November 29 session. Having said that, Friday’s low also ended up as a “poor low” which means that it doesn’t have any excess and auctions are supposed to end with excess.
The most important structural scenarios going into this new week will be last week’s low at 6039.75. and Friday’s single prints. These go from 6060.26 to 6062.75 and from 6066.26 to 6073.25.
If we see initiative selling below last week’s low and sellers can fill all of the November 29 single prints, I will be looking for a move towards the 6000 psychological level or towards the bottom of the Balance Zone at 5998.
If we trade above the 6057 BZ level I will be monitoring for potential responsive sellers within Friday’s single prints. If buyers can fill these singles and they can trade above the 6086 BZ level I will be looking for the repair of Wednesday’s poor high and then the repair of the poor All Time High at 6111.
Bullish Scenarios:
Longs above 6057 targeting 6073.
Longs above 6086 targeting 6115.
Bearish Scenarios:
Shorts below 6057 targeting 6028.
Shorts below 6028 targeting 5998.