April 21

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April 21 Pre-Bell Update

• Overnight Inventory is 100% short. We are trading below Thursday’s range which means that gap rules apply. The rule tells us to “go with the gap” if it doesn’t get filled. A sign of stronger sellers is preventing the gap from getting filled.

• Sellers gave us a look below last week’s low at 5251 but as of the time of this writing we are trading back inside of last week’s range. Notice that we have the overnight low right at the 5238 BZ level.

• VWAP is sitting at 5269, just 3 points below the ETH Halfback at 5272.

• ⁃ I’m going to be monitoring interest below the open or below the overnight low. Lack of interest could trigger a correction to overnight inventory.

April 21 Plan

On Wednesday we had an inside day breakout to the downside  with single prints between 5317 and 5346. On Thursday we had another inside day that was spent mostly inside the Wednesday single prints.

• Going into Monday’s session it’s all about monitoring this inside day breakout. As of the time of this writing we are already trading below Thursday’s low. For sellers it’s all about keeping us below 5296 or below the 5300 psychological level. While for buyers it’s all about getting us back move 5354.

Bullish Scenarios:

• Longs above 5325 or above 5354 targeting 5413.

• Longs above 5413 targeting 5472. ( This would be a “2-Day Balance breakout failure”.

Bearish Scenarios:

• Shorts below 5296 targeting 5238.

• Shorts below 5238 targeting 5179 followed by 5100.

Nasdaq:

• Inside Day Rules.

• Longs above 18,331.00 targeting 18,575.00 followed by 18,915.00.

• Shorts below 18,331.00 targeting 18,023.00 followed by 17,681.00.